Outline

Energy Disaggregation

Aggregate Energy Bill

Itemised Energy Bill

The many names of 'energy disaggregation'

Why bother with disaggregation?

Use-cases for energy disaggregation

• Many use-cases
• This talk is about one use-case:
  • Can disaggregated energy feedback help people to reduce energy consumption more effectively than aggregate energy data alone?

How might disaggregated data reduce energy demand?

1977: the Twin Rivers program

Socolow, The twin rivers program on energy conservation in housing: Highlights and conclusions,Energy and Buildings, 1977

2:1 range in energy consumption between identical houses

Socolow, The twin rivers program on energy conservation in housing: Highlights and conclusions,Energy and Buildings, 1977

"Information deficit" and "rational resource managers"

People self-report that they want disaggregated energy data

But do people save energy when given disaggregated data?

Why reduce energy consumption?

2015 Paris agreement on Climate Change

Background image from phys.org/Gregory Heath/CSIRO

Fossil-fuel emissions estimated to be compatible with 2 °C (RCP2.6)

Background image from phys.org/Gregory Heath/CSIRO

Past and future changes in CO2 and mean temperature

Clark et al., Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change,Nature Climate Change, 2016

Past and future changes in global mean sea level

Clark et al., Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change,Nature Climate Change, 2016

My Work

The Computer Science of disaggregation

Recurrent Neural Nets

Systematic reviews

• Common in medicine, social sciences etc.
• Aim to collect all papers matching a defined search criteria
• Quantitative summary of each paper and biases
• Quantitative synthesis of all results
• May include a "meta-analysis"
• Distinct from "narrative" reviews

Background image from UCSF

Methodology

Research questions

Literature search

• ‘disaggregated AND [energy|electricity] AND feedback’
• ‘N[I|A|IA]LM AND feedback’

The studies

12 groups of studies identified

Findings

• Mean energy reduction = 4.5%
• Weighted by number of participants
• Full meta-analysis probably not possible

Biases

Opt-in bias

• All 12 studies suffer from 'opt-in' bias
• Subjects self-selected to some extent
• Subjects probably more interested in energy than the average person
• Very likely to be a strong positive bias

The Hawthorne Effect

• 8 studies did not control for Hawthorne
• Hawthorne effect is illustrated by Schwartz et al. 2013:
  • Randomised controlled trial
  • 6,350 participants split into 2 groups: control & treatment
  • Treatment received weekly postcard saying: "You have been selected to be part of a one-month study of how much electricity you use in your home... No action is needed on your part. We will send you a weekly reminder postcard about the study..."
  • Treatment group reduced energy consumption by 2.7%!
• Failure to control for Hawthorne very likely to be strong positive bias

Other biases

• 6 studies used attention-grabbing displays
• Home-visits
• 10 studies were short (4 months or less)
• Cherry-picking statistical analyses and comparison periods?
• 8 studies used sub-metered data, hence avoiding mistrust from participants
• Publication bias?

Can disaggregated electricity feedback enable "energy enthusiasts" to save energy?

• Very likely. For example...

Home Energy Analytics (HEA) studies

• 1,623 users
• Up to 44 months
• Average reduction of 6.1%
• Top quartile (310 "super-enthusiasts") reduced by 14.5%

2014 PG&E study

• 1,685 users: half got IHD; half got Bidgely
• 3 months
• No significant reduction across all 1,685 users
• But users who selected a time-of-use tariff saved 7.7% (142 IHD; 136 Bidgely)

How much energy would the whole population save?

• No "perfect" correction for opt-in bias
• Consider study in Sweden (Vassileva et al. 2012):
  • 2,000 households given access to website analysing their aggregate energy demand
  • Only 32% accessed the website. They saved 15%.
  • Those who did not access website did not reduce energy.
  • Average saving = 32% x 15% = 5%

How much energy would the whole population save?

• Average opt-in rate = 16%
• Average saving across population = 16% x 4.5% = 0.7%

Is "fine-grained" disaggregation necessary?

Is "fine-grained" disaggregation necessary?

Home Energy Analytics (HEA) studies

• Average reduction of 6.1%
• Coarse-grained disaggregation may be sufficient
• But no studies directly compared fine-grained against coarse-grained.

Aggregate versus disaggregated feedback

• 4 of the 12 studies directly compared disaggregated against aggregate feedback
  • 3 studies found aggregate to be more effective
  • 1 study found aggregate to be equally effective
  • 2 field trials & 2 lab experiments

The 2 field trials...

Sokoloski 2015

• Randomised controlled trial
• 70 households recruited in California
  • Disag group (n=12)
  • IHD group (n=34)
  • No-contact control (n=24)
• 3 weeks
• Becky Sokoloski, Disaggregated Electricity Consumption: Using Appliance-Specific Feedback to Promote Energy Conservation, M.A. thesis in Psychology, California State University San Marcos, 2015

Sokoloski's results

Sokoloski's results

Sokoloski's results

Energy reductions:

• IHD: 8.1% (statistically significant)
• Disaggregation: 0.5%
• Control: -2.5%

Sokoloski's results

Findings from surveys:

• Follow-up survey revealed that the disag group were not significantly more likely to be willing to replace large, inefficient appliances compared to controls or IHD group.
• Neither controls nor the disag group significantly increased their perception of control (initial survey versus follow-up).
• IHD group did increase their perception of control.

Sokoloski's results

Findings from surveys:

• Users viewed their devices:
  • 0.86 times per day for disag users
  • 8.16 times per day for IHD users
• Returning devices:
  • 2 of 7 (29%) wanted to return disag device
  • 2 of 30 (7%) wanted to return IHD

PG&E 2014 trial

• 1,685 PG&E customers
• 1,001 from SmartRate & 584 from time-of-use users
• additional no-contact controls
• Half got IHD & half got Bidgely
• 3 months
• Users choose intervention
• Did not tease apart consumption of IHD vs Bidgely
• Churchwell et al., HAN Phase 3 Impact and Process Evaluation Report, technical report by Nexant, 2014

PG&E 2014 trial results

• No significant energy reduction across all 1,001 SmartRate users or 208 EV TOU users
• 7.7% energy reduction for time-of-use users (142 IHD & 136 Bidgely users)
• IHD users significantly more likely to report taking actions to reduce electricity usage and to use their device to deduce power demand of individual appliances(!)

PG&E 2014 trial results

• Most common complaint from Bidgely users was about the disag feature. Several users did not trust the disag data; or were unsure whether users should assist the algorithm by turning loads on or off; or thought categories were too few or too broad; or didn't like that they couldn't add new disag categories.
• IHD more successful in communicating power demand right now

PG&E 2014 trial results

Frequency of viewing devices

PG&E 2014 trial results

Percentage of customers saying they saved energy

PG&E 2014 trial results

Reported actions taken in response to feedback

Bidgely have redesigned their website since these studies

Suggestions for future studies

• Compare aggregate versus disagg (both on an IHD)
• Compare 2 groups:
• Aggregate on an IHD
• Aggregate (on an IHD) + disagg (on a website)
• Compare fine-grained disag versus coarse-grained disag

Conclusions

• There are many uses for disag data! This talk just considered one use!
• Available evidence suggests that aggregate feedback is at least as effective as disag feedback
• Disag feedback might drive savings of 0.7% - 4.5% in general population
• Disag feedback might drive larger savings in "energy enthusiast" populations
• Fine-grained disag may not be necessary
• But! Lots of gaps in our knowledge. Cannot robustly falsify any hypotheses yet.

Conclusions

Users might become more interested in disag feedback if:

• Energy prices increase
• Concern about climate change deepens
• Disag accuracy increases or if designers communicate uncertain estimates
• Lots of ideas in the literature about how to improve disag feedback. e.g. disag by behaviour; or display feedback near appliances; or provide better recommendations etc.

This presentation is based on my paper: "Does disaggregated electricity feedback reduce domestic electricity consumption? A systematic review of the literature", In 3rd International NILM Workshop, Vancouver, Canada, 14-15 May 2016.